COVID-19 vaccinations do not explain the excess mortality observed during the corona pandemic, according to a study by University Medical Center Utrecht. The results show that, on average, someone who was vaccinated was 44 percent less likely to die in the first three weeks after vaccination than in the weeks thereafter. The study also showed that the risk of death in the first three weeks after a corona infection was 16 times higher than in the weeks thereafter.
This study confirms the findings from previous studies that COVID-19 vaccination does not explain the excess mortality during the pandemic. The lower mortality risk applied to all ages, men and women, people with and without chronic diseases, previous COVID-19 infections, and to both mRNA and non-mRNA vaccines. The lower risk of mortality was strongest in the first week after vaccination and remained visible until at least 12 weeks after vaccination, the longest period examined in the study.
In contrast, the risk of death in the first three weeks after a recorded positive corona infection was as much as 16 times higher than in the subsequent period. The mortality risk was highest in the second week after infection and decreased thereafter. This higher mortality risk mainly affected elderly people, slightly more men than women, as well as people with multiple chronic diseases.
Principal investigator Prof. Patricia Bruijning-Verhagen, MD PhD and professor of Vaccination and Infection Control Epidemiology at UMC Utrecht, concludes: “This study confirms the findings of previous studies that COVID-19 vaccination does not explain the excess mortality observed during the corona pandemic. These findings may serve to better inform the public and strengthen confidence in the safety of COVID-19 vaccines.”
The COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to have caused nearly 15 million extra deaths worldwide, far more than the more than 5 million reported COVID-19 deaths. This so-called excess mortality can be explained by the direct effects of the infection as well as indirect effects, such as disruptions in healthcare systems and economic instability. COVID-19 vaccination has proven highly effective in reducing the severity of COVID-19 infections and preventing COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths.
Vaccination temporarily activates the immune system to mount an immune response. This temporary activation can, in rare cases, be associated with serious side effects, including myocarditis, thrombosis and neurological complications. Whether COVID-19 vaccination could contribute to excess mortality has been studied in several countries, consistently reporting a protective effect of vaccination against all-cause mortality. However, these studies compared vaccinated with unvaccinated individuals, who may differ in vulnerability, chronic conditions and socioeconomic factors.
The aim of the current study was to examine the relationship between COVID-19 vaccination and short-term mortality during the period from January 2021 to April 2023. Data from 396,765 individuals in a national database who died during this period were used for this purpose. Through its specific design, this study provides additional evidence by comparing each individual’s risk of death within three weeks of COVID-19 vaccination with the risk of death later than three weeks after vaccination in the same individual. Using this study design, each person is his/her own control which ensures that differences between individuals, for example in frailty, chronic conditions and socioeconomic factors do not affect the results. The period of the first three weeks after vaccination was selected because side effects of vaccinations are expected to occur during this period in response to the activation of the immune system.
Slurink IAL, Boer AR de, Bonten MJM, Sturkenboom MCJM, Bruijning-Verhagen PCJL. COVID-19 vaccination and short-term mortality risk: a nationwide self-controlled case series study in The Netherlands. Manuscript posted on medRxiv, December 12, 2024
